作者：安建安顺 来源：原创 发布日期：08-26
一 | 7月末社融存量、M2增速均高于名义GDP增速 货币政策保持支持性立场 央行有望推出更多增量政策 中国人民银行日前发布的《2026年7月金融统计数据报告》显示，7月末，社会融资规模存量、广义货币（M2）增速均明显高于上半年名义GDP增速，社会融资条件处在比较宽松的状态，货币政策延续支持性立场。 Ranveer Singh's Dhurandhar had an explosive opening at the Indian box office. The Aditya Dhar directorial is a spy thriller revolving around a RAW agent and his covert missions in the criminal underworld of Karachi and its link to India. According to industry tracker Sacnilk, the film has earned Rs 27 crore on its release day, December 5. This surpasses the predictions made by trade experts, who estimated the film's opening day earnings to fall in the range of Rs 15-18 crore. With a stronger start than Saiyaara, which collected Rs ₹21.50 crore on Day 1, Dhurandhar has already outperformed expectations. It has also come very close to Chhaava's opening day collection of Rs 31 crore, making it a solid comeback for Singh. Dhurandhar has now recorded the third-biggest opening of 2025 after War 2 (Rs 52 crore) and Chhaava. It also stands as Ranveer Singh's biggest opener to date, surpassing his previous record, Simmba, which opened at Rs 20 crore in 2018. Besides Ranveer, Dhurandhar features an ensemble cast featuring Akshaye Khanna, R Madhavan, Sanjay Dutt, Sara Arjun, Rakesh Bedi and Arjun Rampal among others. Filmfare's Review of Dhurandhar Filmfare rated the film 3.5 out of 5 and said in its review, "At the centre of this world stands Ranveer Singh, playing the hard-edged agent who slips into the shadow world of sleeper operatives as a cross-border conspiracy erupts. It’s a performance of restraint, a departure from his flamboyant screen persona. This Ranveer is raw yet internalised, driven yet fraying. The role demands both physical ferocity and emotional weariness, and he delivers both with remarkable control. His silences speak as loudly as his action beats, grounding the film even when its narrative ambitions begin to overtake its focus." Meanwhile, Dhurandhar's sequel will be released in March next year. Also Read: Yami Gautam Praises Aditya Dhar’s Hard Work As Dhurandhar Releases in Theatres。
二 | 业内专家普遍认为，货币政策有望在总量和结构性工具方面协同发力，推出更多增量政策，为经济稳中向好提供更有力支撑。
三 | 具体来看，7月末，社会融资规模存量达到463.27万亿元，同比增长7.4%，其中企业债券余额36.47万亿元，同比增长9.2%，政府债券余额102.68万亿元，同比增长14.1%。M2余额355.51万亿元，同比增长7.7%。
四 | 月末人民币贷款余额282.29万亿元，同比增长5.1%。 “在企业债券融资、政府债券融资等分项同比多增带动下，7月社融时隔4个月再度恢复同比多增，支撑月末社融存量同比增速与上月末持平，结束了此前连续4个月的下行过程。总体来看，当前M2、存量社融增速显著高于上半年名义GDP增速，表明当前社会融资条件处在较为宽松的状态，货币政策保持支持性立场。”东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示。
五 | 不过业内专家也提到，主要受企业融资需求减弱、居民部门持续降杠杆等因素影响，7月人民币贷款继续处于“降速提质”过程。 “目前贷款利率呈现下行趋势，说明在供求关系作用下，贷款投放已经比较充分。贷款增速下降，与企业等经营主体融资方式变化有一定关系，在存量社会融资规模中，债券融资增速明显较高。社会融资规模全面反映了实体经济从金融部门获得的融资支持，其增速稳定说明金融对实体经济的支持是足够的。”中国邮政储蓄银行研究员娄飞鹏说。
六 | 王青认为，总体上看，7月新增信贷总量依然偏弱，贷款“降速提质”正在成为新常态。从结构上看，当前银行体系正顺应经济转型趋势，优化信贷投向。
七 | 数据显示，7月末普惠小微等金融“五篇大文章”贷款增速明显高于全部贷款增速，当月新发放贷款加权平均利率降至历史低位，当前信贷投放结构优化，服务实体经济质效提升。 面对国内外经济金融形势的新变化，业内人士认为，央行有望推出更多增量措施。 央行日前发布的《2026年第二季度中国货币政策执行报告》（以下简称《报告》）提出，下阶段，将充分发挥各项存量政策效能，及时谋划出台务实管用的增量政策，加大逆周期调节力度，加力扩大内需、优化供给，推动经济持续向新向优向好发展。 同时，《报告》还要求发挥好货币政策工具总量和结构双重功能，落实好年初出台的一系列货币金融政策，不断完善工具设计和管理，扎实做好金融“五篇大文章”，加强对扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域的金融支持。
八 | 南开大学金融学教授田利辉认为，结合二季度货币政策执行报告的表态，预计央行政策重心将更多转向盘活存量、创新结构性工具以及配合财政发力。 “预计结构性货币政策工具将继续降价、增量、扩围，加大对科技融资、普惠金融的定向支持力度，推动新旧动能转换，提升金融服务实体经济质效。综合考虑经济运行态势及物价走势，预计三季度末前后以上增量政策有可能落地。值得注意的是，下半年政府债券发行会明显提速，8000亿元新型政策性金融工具将加快推进。这会带动政府债券融资恢复同比多增，并拉动配套贷款投放。由此，下半年社融有望恢复同比多增。”王青说。（记者 袁小康）。
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